Caro-Kann by rating
1.e4 c6 2.d4 d5 3.Nc3
The Caro-Kann has a reputation for being solid and easy to play, and the first half of the data agrees: dxe4 is both the engine's move and the popular one, found more often the stronger the player. The position two plies later inverts that, and it is the more interesting half.
How often each rating finds the engine move
Early findability climbs from 47 to 88 percent. Late findability falls from 45 percent at 1000 to 29 percent at 2200.
The position after 1.e4 c6 2.d4 d5 3.Nc3
This is where the opening actually starts asking a question. 29 moves are legal; Stockfish scores every one of them at depth 20.
Stockfish plays dxe4 at -0.43. Its next two choices are h6 (-0.62) and a6 (-0.64).
| Rating | Most likely human move | Finds dxe4 | Cost in pawns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1000 | dxe4-0.43 | 47% | same move |
| 1200 | dxe4-0.43 | 59% | same move |
| 1400 | dxe4-0.43 | 69% | same move |
| 1600 | dxe4-0.43 | 76% | same move |
| 1800 | dxe4-0.43 | 80% | same move |
| 2000 | dxe4-0.43 | 85% | same move |
| 2200 | dxe4-0.43 | 88% | same move |
Two plies deeper
Following the most popular human continuation at 1400: dxe4 (69%), then Nxe4 (93%).
Stockfish plays Bf5 at -0.31. Its next two choices are Nf6 (-0.42) and Nd7 (-0.43).
| Rating | Most likely human move | Finds Bf5 | Cost in pawns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1000 | Bf5-0.31 | 45% | same move |
| 1200 | Bf5-0.31 | 52% | same move |
| 1400 | Bf5-0.31 | 54% | same move |
| 1600 | Bf5-0.31 | 51% | same move |
| 1800 | Nf6-0.42 | 44% | 0.11 |
| 2000 | Nf6-0.42 | 34% | 0.11 |
| 2200 | Nf6-0.42 | 29% | 0.11 |
See this for your own games
Chessdrive runs the same two engines on your phone. It shows the move you should have found at your rating, not just the move a 3500-rated engine would have played.
How these numbers were produced
Stockfish 18 by the Stockfish developers (see AUTHORS file) at depth 20, with MultiPV set to the exact legal move count of each position so no move is left unscored, and Maia3, chessformer, human move prediction, 5m (bundled with maia3-js, UofTCSSLab/Maia3-5M, about 5M parameters) for the human move distribution. Run on 2026-08-29 over 28 positions across 7 rating bands. Findability is Maia3's probability for Stockfish's top move; it is not a claim about win rate.