Scotch Game by rating
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4
The Scotch opens the centre immediately with 3.d4, and Black's reply is the cleanest example of a move that has to be learned once and then never thought about again. Half of 1000-rated players take on d4; almost every 2200 does.
How often each rating finds the engine move
The widest opening gap in the whole run: 49 percent at 1000 against 96 percent at 2200 on a single capture.
The position after 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4
This is where the opening actually starts asking a question. 32 moves are legal; Stockfish scores every one of them at depth 20.
Stockfish plays exd4 at -0.16. Its next two choices are Nxd4 (-0.64) and d5 (-0.88).
| Rating | Most likely human move | Finds exd4 | Cost in pawns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1000 | exd4-0.16 | 49% | same move |
| 1200 | exd4-0.16 | 63% | same move |
| 1400 | exd4-0.16 | 75% | same move |
| 1600 | exd4-0.16 | 83% | same move |
| 1800 | exd4-0.16 | 88% | same move |
| 2000 | exd4-0.16 | 92% | same move |
| 2200 | exd4-0.16 | 96% | same move |
Two plies deeper
Following the most popular human continuation at 1400: exd4 (75%), then Nxd4 (75%).
Stockfish plays Nf6 at -0.16. Its next two choices are Bc5 (-0.27) and Qf6 (-0.33).
| Rating | Most likely human move | Finds Nf6 | Cost in pawns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1000 | Nxd4-0.71 | 14% | 0.55 |
| 1200 | Nxd4-0.71 | 12% | 0.55 |
| 1400 | Nxd4-0.71 | 11% | 0.55 |
| 1600 | Nxd4-0.71 | 11% | 0.55 |
| 1800 | Nxd4-0.71 | 13% | 0.55 |
| 2000 | Bc5-0.27 | 21% | 0.11 |
| 2200 | Bc5-0.27 | 36% | 0.11 |
See this for your own games
Chessdrive runs the same two engines on your phone. It shows the move you should have found at your rating, not just the move a 3500-rated engine would have played.
How these numbers were produced
Stockfish 18 by the Stockfish developers (see AUTHORS file) at depth 20, with MultiPV set to the exact legal move count of each position so no move is left unscored, and Maia3, chessformer, human move prediction, 5m (bundled with maia3-js, UofTCSSLab/Maia3-5M, about 5M parameters) for the human move distribution. Run on 2026-08-29 over 28 positions across 7 rating bands. Findability is Maia3's probability for Stockfish's top move; it is not a claim about win rate.