King's Gambit by rating

1.e4 e5 2.f4

The King's Gambit is old, sharp, and objectively worse for White, which the engine says plainly at +0.64 for Black after the pawn is taken. What the data adds is that taking the pawn is not the hard part. Holding it afterwards is.

How often each rating finds the engine move

Accepting the gambit is found about 40 percent of the time at every rating. The follow-up sits at 8 to 12 percent.

02550751001000120014001600180020002200
After 1.e4 e5 2.f4Two plies later, after exf4 Nf3
Findability is the probability Maia3 assigns to Stockfish's top move at each rating. Across the two positions the curve moves up 1 points from 1000 to 2200.

The position after 1.e4 e5 2.f4

This is where the opening actually starts asking a question. 30 moves are legal; Stockfish scores every one of them at depth 20.

Black to play, 30 legal moves

Stockfish plays exf4 at +0.64. Its next two choices are d5 (+0.30) and Nc6 (+0.05).

RatingMost likely human moveFinds exf4Cost in pawns
1000exf4+0.6443%same move
1200exf4+0.6444%same move
1400exf4+0.6443%same move
1600exf4+0.6443%same move
1800exf4+0.6443%same move
2000exf4+0.6442%same move
2200exf4+0.6440%same move

Two plies deeper

Following the most popular human continuation at 1400: exf4 (43%), then Nf3 (87%).

Black to play, 29 legal moves

Stockfish plays d6 at +0.66. Its next two choices are g5 (+0.58) and Nf6 (+0.54).

RatingMost likely human moveFinds d6Cost in pawns
1000Nf6+0.548%0.12
1200Nc6-0.0811%0.74
1400Nc6-0.0814%0.74
1600Nc6-0.0817%0.74
1800g5+0.5817%0.08
2000g5+0.5815%0.08
2200g5+0.5812%0.08

See this for your own games

Chessdrive runs the same two engines on your phone. It shows the move you should have found at your rating, not just the move a 3500-rated engine would have played.

How these numbers were produced

Stockfish 18 by the Stockfish developers (see AUTHORS file) at depth 20, with MultiPV set to the exact legal move count of each position so no move is left unscored, and Maia3, chessformer, human move prediction, 5m (bundled with maia3-js, UofTCSSLab/Maia3-5M, about 5M parameters) for the human move distribution. Run on 2026-08-29 over 28 positions across 7 rating bands. Findability is Maia3's probability for Stockfish's top move; it is not a claim about win rate.